Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology released a weather forecast on 1 November 2026, predicting thunderstorms with rain, cold gusts and fog across several provinces. The report named Jazan, Asir, Al‑Baha, Mecca, Medina, Hail, and the Northern Border as the primary regions for this activity. Coastal zones, including the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf, were similarly highlighted for storm‑like conditions, with surface winds from the northwest and sea states rising to two meters.
The forecast described the development of low‑pressure systems over the southern Red Sea, which would drive warm moist air into the interior at high speed. The report noted that these conditions would produce heavy rain showers accompanied by thunder and lightning. In addition, the temperature drops associated with frontal passage would create cold gusts that could trigger localized fog, especially in high‑altitude areas such as the Asir and Al‑Baha mountain ranges. The fog was expected to form in the early morning and persist until late afternoon, lowering visibility for drivers and aircraft.
Wind patterns were central to the forecast. Surface winds from the northwest Red Sea were projected to reach 12–35 km/h in the northern sector, while winds from the northwest to west were expected to be 12–32 km/h in the central zone. In the southern part, south‑east to south‑west winds were forecast at 12–32 km/h. Meanwhile, on the Arabian Gulf, winds shifted from east to southeast, with speeds from 10–28 km/h that could intensify to over 50 km/h in the northern sector and again to over 50 km/h in the southern sector. The report called these shifts “storm‑inducing” and noted that they would increase turbulence for low‑altitude flight routes.
Sea conditions mirrored the wind intensity. The Red Sea experienced a sea state from light to medium, with wave heights ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 m. In the Gulf of Aden, wave heights were expected to be 0.5–1 m, again qualifying as light. Coastal cities along the Gulf of Aden, however, could see waves exceed two meters, signifying a “stormy sea” scenario that could affect shipping lanes and fishing vessels. The report defined a stormy sea state as one in which wave action is irregular, strong, and varies in height, potentially creating hazardous conditions for surface navigation.
Along the coast, wind direction and speed were a key focus. The Gulf of Aden’s eastern winds, with a speed of 10–28 km/h, were projected to increase to more than 50 km/h according to the forecast, creating “swell” conditions for the western shoreline. In the eastern sector, winds from the east to the north were likewise expected to spike past the 50‑km/h mark. The resulting wave action was consistent with the two‑meter wave height forecast, which would impose significant strain on coastal infrastructure and emergency services in cities such as Jeddah, Yanbu, and Dhahran. Those areas must prepare for potential flooding in low‑lying sectors.
Overall, the forecast underscores how the convergence of warm moist air from the Red Sea, cooler air moving inland, and strong surface winds can combine to produce thunderstorm activity and sea‑state changes across Saudi Arabia. The National Center for Meteorology’s data platform, which aggregates satellite imagery and ground‑station readings, feeds into these predictive models that inform local authorities and the public. As the kingdom grapples with both inland and maritime safety concerns, this warning serves as a reminder that regional weather events can cascade into multi‑sector impacts—from transportation to energy infrastructure. For citizens residing in affected provinces, the report recommends staying current on official advisories, preparing for potential power interruptions, and avoiding water‑related activities in coastal zones until conditions stabilize.
